India’s goods traffic movement is a good lead indicator of how some core sectors are performing. Coal is shipped by rail. Steel plants transport ore and other raw materials to their plants, and transport finished steel back by rail. Other key commodities being transported by rail include fertilisers, foodgrains and crude oil. An increase in freight traffic either indicates higher demand for raw materials (coal is used by power and steel plants) or higher production because shipments are going up.
 

The Reserve Bank of India left benchmark interest rates untouched in its quarterly credit policy statement, released today. That was as expected. But RBI Governor D. Subbarao, has made it clear that once clear signs of a recovery are evident, and if prices are ruling higher, the RBI will move swiftly to hike rates. At present, it is holding back pre-emptive action, to give room for consumers to borrow and buy and thereby generate demand for industries to grow.

The Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has proposed amendments to the Budget. It is customary for the FM to take in suggestions from various sides and introduce any necessary amendments. The FM has said that the priority was to provide a stimulus to economic activity.
 

In June 2009, the Indian Railways carried 9.6% more cargo at 71.5mn tonnes, compared to June 2008. That is the highest so far in the current fiscal and also much higher than the growth in full year 2008-09. Railway freight volumes give an inkling of how the basic industries are performing in an economy.
 

The railway minister has made up her mind to lean on the centre in the next few years to support her growth plans. In 2009-10, the budgetary support has been increased by Rs 5,000 crore over the interim budget figure. But its reliance on the government for funds is expected to increase, putting pressure on the government’s already strained resource position.
 

It is not the first time that the government has hiked petrol and diesel prices in the run-up to the budget. On July 1, the government announced a Rs 4/litre increase in petrol prices and Rs 2/litre for diesel. That amounts to a price hike of 10% and 7% respectively.

More evidence of the slowdown, not that anyone needs it. The Indian Railways play a key role in the transportation of certain petroleum products, cement and clinker, coal, iron ore and agricultural products. In FY08, volume traffic growth was high at 9% but FY09 has seen growth decelerate. In November’08, volume traffic is up by just 1.3% to 66.6mn tonnes and up by 6.5% to 534.6mn tonnes in the April-November period.

India’s Union Budget 2008-09 has been greeted by three successive days of stock market declines, including the day it was announced. Some of the negative sentiment is more global in nature. But the Budget proposals do not seem to have gladdened investors. It tries to give a boost to demand by giving more cash for people to spend, taking a leaf from George Bush’s largesse, including farmers whose debt has been waived.
 
Here’s a look at what the Budget has really done.