India’s travel and tourism market in 2011 is seeing healthy demand, going by the numbers being put out by the Ministry of Tourism.

In September, foreign tourist arrivals rose by 8.7% to 4.01 lakh numbers, and as we head into the main tourist season, the Indian tourism industry is set to end 2011 on a high note.

Spending by foreign tourists, labelled as foreign exchange earnings by the government, rose by 23% in rupee terms and by 19% in dollar terms in September, over the year ago period.

Inflation for the month of July shows a slight dip to 9.22%, compared to the 9.44% seen in the previous month. One could argue if a drop of one-fifth of a percentage point is significant, but lower inflation, however small the actual decline, is a good thing.

The government releases overall inflation data monthly, while primary inflation data (food and non-food) and fuel price behaviour is released on a weekly basis.

There has been a steady improvement in tourist arrivals in recent months, minimising the sharp decline that was visible earlier. In October 2009, tourist arrivals dipped by just 0.9% to 4.48 lakh numbers. This is much better than the 4.1% decline in September and 8.6% in August. Typically, the next few months will be the peak season for foreign tourist arrivals and a good season will bring relief to the tourism and travel industry.
 

Industrial output for June 2009 is a bright spot amidst the gloom, caused by a near certain drought and a swine flu outbreak in the country. The index of industrial production (IIP) for June 2009 has increased by 7.8% over the same period last year. There was a partial base effect, as mining grew by 15% compared to a 0.1% growth in June 2008 and electricity grew by 8% compared to 2.6%.
 

A revival in industrial production is a healthy sign for the Indian economy, as it had turned negative in the recent past. With a question on agricultural output due to a late monsoon, it falls upon industry and services to contribute to the economy's growth in 2009-10.
 
What:

  • The index of industrial production for May 2009 has increased by 2.7%, doubling from its growth in April 2009.
  • The manufacturing index, a keenly watched sub-indicator, grew by 2.5%.

Why: 

The South-West monsoon rainfall not only brings relief to people from the summer heat, but is eagerly awaited by farmers. Their crop output depends on it, in a country where irrigation infrastructure is still pitiful, well into the 21st century. For them, the revised monsoon forecast is a dampener. The weather bureau (www.imd.gov.in) has revised its South-West monsoon forecast.

The government yesterday issued bonds worth Rs 21,942 crore to the oil marketing companies to compensate for the losses incurred by them. IOC got about 54% of the total bonds while BPCL was issued nearly a fourth and HPCL the rest. These bonds have a coupon of 6.9% and mature in 2026. Since the oil marketing companies have little leeway in fixing prices of petroleum products resulting in losses, especially on the sale of kerosene and LPG.
 

The government gave oil marketing companies something to cheer before they prepare the third quarter’s results. They have got bonds to compensate them for the losses incurred on selling retail petroleum products like PDS kerosene and LPG. Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation have been issued bonds worth Rs 22,000 crore, with the companies getting 54.4%, 24.2% and 21.3% respectively.
 

December has been a good month for fertiliser companies. Earlier this month, the government had issued 7% bonds worth Rs 10,000 crore to 23 companies. Now the government has released another tranche of 6.2% bonds worth Rs 4,000 crore to 16 companies. These bonds are not eligible to be kept with banks as SLR but can be bought by insurance companies, in the ‘other approved securities’ list and as special bonds by PF/Gratuity/Superannuation funds.

Indian companies are struggling with a decline in demand which is affecting production, a fact visible in the December’08 quarter. If October’08 saw a marginal decline in industrial production after more than a decade of continuous growth, November’08 threatens to be worse. Investors should brace themselves for nasty surprises when the quarterly results are announced.