Even as the government talks about a recovery in the kharif sowing pattern, the monsoon is moving in a volatile fashion. Last week (July 23-July 29), the actual rainfall was 18% less than the average seen in this period. In the previous week, actual rainfall was 15% higher.

In June 2009, the Indian Railways carried 9.6% more cargo at 71.5mn tonnes, compared to June 2008. That is the highest so far in the current fiscal and also much higher than the growth in full year 2008-09. Railway freight volumes give an inkling of how the basic industries are performing in an economy.
 

Overall Impact
The Union Budget 2009-10, as Pranab Mukherjee mentioned, is one of continuity. No major new schemes. No major tax changes. No change in the thinking of the government with respect to the fiscal deficit. No major reforms announced in the Budget, either. The initial impression one gets is that the government is hoping that the external environment will improve, domestic demand will pick up and lift the economy out the trough.
 

On Friday, January 2, 2008 the RBI relaxed prudential norms for recognition of bad loans by banks. The move will allow banks to hide their bad loans for a much longer time, even as they hope that the borrowers’ economic condition improves and they pay back or recover their dues through other means.
 

The Indian government has been attempting several measures to boost economic growth. From today, petrol and diesel prices have been reduced by 10% and 6% respectively due to a sharp fall in crude oil prices. The Indian government is in the midst of putting together a package to prevent a recession.
 

The Indian weather bureau has updated its initial forecast for the Southwest Monsoon. In April 2008, the bureau had predicted that rainfall would be 99% of its long term average, plus or minus 5%. The long term average refers to a rainfall of 89 cms. The updated forecasts suggests rainfall to be near normal, and will be 100% if its long term average, plus or minus 4%.