• India’s industry is in trouble, with the index of industrial production declining by 0.4% in October 2008. Recent months have seen a distinct slowdown of production but this is the first time that there has been a decline. The main cause is a 1.2% decline in the manufacturing index even as the mining and electricity indices grew a bit.
     

  • The government yesterday issued bonds worth Rs 21,942 crore to the oil marketing companies to compensate for the losses incurred by them. IOC got about 54% of the total bonds while BPCL was issued nearly a fourth and HPCL the rest. These bonds have a coupon of 6.9% and mature in 2026. Since the oil marketing companies have little leeway in fixing prices of petroleum products resulting in losses, especially on the sale of kerosene and LPG.
     

  • December has been a good month for fertiliser companies. Earlier this month, the government had issued 7% bonds worth Rs 10,000 crore to 23 companies. Now the government has released another tranche of 6.2% bonds worth Rs 4,000 crore to 16 companies. These bonds are not eligible to be kept with banks as SLR but can be bought by insurance companies, in the ‘other approved securities’ list and as special bonds by PF/Gratuity/Superannuation funds.

  • The tobacco industry lobby won a significant victory recently when it succeeded in getting the government to amend the Tobacco Act 2003. The act had a provision for pictures displayed on products, warning about the harmful effects of smoking or consuming tobacco. These were to be displayed on all tobacco products like cigarettes, bidis and even gutkha.
     

  • Last week, inflation touched 8.75% confirming that inflation has perhaps crossed 9% and if you factor in the June 4 petroleum product price hikes, it will cross 10%. Everyone seems to be predicting that by November’08, the base effect will kick in and reported inflation will come down. Still, if the direction in which prices are moving does not change, it does not bode well.
     

  • On Friday, January 2, 2008 the RBI relaxed prudential norms for recognition of bad loans by banks. The move will allow banks to hide their bad loans for a much longer time, even as they hope that the borrowers’ economic condition improves and they pay back or recover their dues through other means.
     

  • The government has issued 7% fertiliser bonds worth Rs 10,000 crore to 23 companies, representing the subsidy given during FY09. These bonds are not eligible to be kept with banks as SLR but can be bought by insurance companies, in the ‘other approved securities’ list and as special bonds by PF/Gratuity/Superannuation funds. Moreover, they can also be eligible for repo transactions.
     

  • This may qualify as a near normal monsoon as per the meteorological department’s guidelines, but is lower compared to last year’s forecast of 99%. The Met has been using a new model since 2007, and last year the actual rainfall fell just 1% short of the forecast. Lesser rainfall usually raises a question mark on agricultural output. The economic impact of a poor crop has lessened as industry and services account for a larger share of GDP. But in a slowdown, a good agricultural output provides a buffer.

  • Income Tax
    This was a big disappointment to those expecting a bagful of goodies from the Indian government, that the Union Budget 2009-10 would cut dividend distribution tax, corporate tax rates will be cut and so on. There was no change in the corporate tax rate.
     

  • A revival in industrial production is a healthy sign for the Indian economy, as it had turned negative in the recent past. With a question on agricultural output due to a late monsoon, it falls upon industry and services to contribute to the economy's growth in 2009-10.
     
    What:

    • The index of industrial production for May 2009 has increased by 2.7%, doubling from its growth in April 2009.
    • The manufacturing index, a keenly watched sub-indicator, grew by 2.5%.

    Why: