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Revised monsoon forecast casts a shadow

The South-West monsoon rainfall not only brings relief to people from the summer heat, but is eagerly awaited by farmers. Their crop output depends on it, in a country where irrigation infrastructure is still pitiful, well into the 21st century. For them, the revised monsoon forecast is a dampener. The weather bureau ( has revised its South-West monsoon forecast.

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Monsoon in 2009-10 to be 96% of normal, off last year’s level

This may qualify as a near normal monsoon as per the meteorological department’s guidelines, but is lower compared to last year’s forecast of 99%. The Met has been using a new model since 2007, and last year the actual rainfall fell just 1% short of the forecast. Lesser rainfall usually raises a question mark on agricultural output. The economic impact of a poor crop has lessened as industry and services account for a larger share of GDP. But in a slowdown, a good agricultural output provides a buffer. Continue Reading →

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